The impact of influenza vaccination on infection, hospitalisation and mortality in the Netherlands between 2003 and 2015
作者： J.A. Backer , J. Wallinga , A. Meijer , G.A. Donker , W. van der Hoek
DOI: 10.1016/J.EPIDEM.2018.10.001
关键词:
摘要: Influenza epidemics annually cause substantial morbidity and mortality. For this reason, vaccination is offered yearly to persons with an elevated risk for complications. Assessments of the impact are, however, hampered by year-to-year variation in epidemic size vaccine effectiveness. We estimate current programme comparing simulations counterfactual without vaccination. The rely on age- risk-structured transmission model that tracks build-up loss immunity over successive seasons, allows match vary between seasons. parameters are estimated a particle Monte Carlo method approximate Bayesian computation, using epidemiological data effectiveness Netherlands period 11 years. number infections, hospitalisations deaths greatly years because waning may differ every season, which line observed influenza sizes. At overall coverage 21%, has averted average 13% (7.2-19%, 95% range) 24% (16-36%) hospitalisations, 35% (16-50%) deaths. This suggests mainly effective protecting vaccinees from infection rather than reducing transmission. As Dutch population continues grow age, projected (up 2025) gain impact, despite decreasing attack rate.
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