Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets.

摘要: Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little known on how future land-use change may encroach remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic model, we assessed potential losses vegetation with focus these threaten hotspots intact forest landscapes. We analysed under proactive reactive protection scenarios, for different rates pasture intensification. found growing food demand lead significant cropland at expense pastures In our reference scenario, global area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 2050, mostly Africa Latin America. Grazing was main determinant change. Africa, higher resulted smaller vegetation, reduced pressure Investments into raising productivity conjunction planning appear essential reduce further areas high conservation value. America, contrast, livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can land savings Reactive sensitive significantly conversion ecosystems conclude strategies need adapt region-specific positions. regions involvement trade, area-based measures should be preferred over aimed increasing productivity, which themselves might not sufficient protect effectively.