Prey Selection by an Apex Predator: The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty

摘要: The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus ecologists, but firm understanding the factors influencing selection, key predictor that impact, remains elusive. High levels variability observed in selection may reflect true differences ecology different communities might also failure to deal adequately with uncertainties underlying data. Indeed, our review showed less than 10% studies European wolf accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual diet availability and examine temporal patterns selection; particular, identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding selection. Over nine years, collected 1,974 scats conducted drive censuses ungulates Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat census data within years construct confidence intervals around estimates use, selection. Wolf was dominated by boar (61.5±3.90 [SE] % biomass eaten) roe deer (33.7±3.61%). Temporal densities revealed proportion peaked when were low, not highest. Considering only two dominant types, Manly's standardized index using all across indicated (mean = 0.73±0.023). However, error resulted wide Thus, despite considerable variation yearly estimates, overlapped. Failing consider such could lead erroneously assumption among years. This study highlights importance relative accounting interpreting results dietary studies.