Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus) Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy

摘要: Wolves (Canis lupus) in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased number and expanded their range recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010) collected mountainous region central (Arezzo, Tuscany) an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt) characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised) within home ranges, detected from play-back responses. From suite variables related topography, habitat human disturbance found that elevation distance protected most important explaining locality wolf Rendezvous (family response sites) typically occurred between 800 1200 m a.s.l., inside areas, usually located along mountain chains distant settlements roads. In these is low densities ungulates high. Over years, rendezvous closer urban population has continued expand, despite consequent disturbance. This suggests undisturbed landscapes may be reaching carrying capacity for wolves. This, turn, lead potential human-wolf interactions future. Applying our model, both beyond species’ current range, identify also further afield, species could occupy Our work underlines importance present network facilitating recolonisation projections suitability future establishment continues expand inform planning minimize wolf-human conflicts.