What-If Scenario Modeling to Support Oil Spill Preparedness and Response Decision-Making

摘要: ABSTRACTScenario analysis (SA) is the process of developing plausible futures around forces affecting an organization in face uncertainties over which it has little control. SA widely used private sector and increasingly a tool environmental planners grappling with problems great complexity uncertainty. ideally marries expert judgment broader perspectives engaged stakeholders bring. While 1990 Oil Pollution Act (OPA) brought substantive improvement to oil spill contingency planning, many issues remain. Reguatorily prescribed definitions ‘worst case’ lead practice that seldom achieves full promise approach. Contingency planning overly focused on tactical operational considerations can leave response managers prepared deal public concerns emerge event major spill, magnified through social media. Politics continues contribute poorly conceived adop...