Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models

摘要: Abstract Decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming below 2 °C. Due persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that more difficult decarbonize than other sectors. To test this hypothesis, we compare long-term energy demand and emission projections for China, USA the world from five large-scale energy-economy models. We diagnose model's characteristics by subjecting them three climate policies. systematically analyze mitigation levers along chain of causality mobility emissions, finding some models lack relevant options. partially confirm less reactive a given carbon tax non-transport sectors: in first half century, delayed 10–30 years compared mitigation. At high prices towards end however, achieve deep reductions >90% through use advanced vehicle technologies low-carbon primary energy; especially biomass with CCS (carbon capture sequestration) plays crucial role. The extent which earlier possible strongly depends implemented model structure. Compared models, two partial-equilibrium are flexible their reaction