Closed-form aftershock reliability of damage-cumulating elastic-perfectly-plastic systems

摘要: SUMMARY Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays negative power law. Risk management post-event emergency phase has to deal this short-term seismicity. In fact, because structural systems interest might have suffered some damage mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, failure risk may be large until intensity reduces or structure is repaired. At state-of-the-art, quantitative assessment aimed at building tagging, is, regulate occupancy. The study, on basis age-dependent stochastic processes, derived closed-form approximations for reliability simple nonevolutionary elastic-perfectly-plastic damage-cumulating systems, conditional different information about structure. Results show that, case hypotheses apply, developed models represent handy tools enabling risk-informed tagging stakeholders decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.