Is it possible to predict one-year survival in centenarians? A neural network study.

作者: Laura Tafaro , Paolo Cicconetti , Gianfranco Piccirillo , Evaristo Ettorre , Vincenzo Marigliano

DOI: 10.1159/000083994

关键词:

摘要: Background: Human life expectancy is constantly increasing: the challenge for modern geriatric medicine to identify means reach successfully extreme longevity. Objective: To determine which are survival determinants in centenarians using a neural network. Methods: Sample of 110 living Rome, mean age 101.6 years (SD = 1.8) with sex ratio males:females 1:3. We administered an extensive health interview (lasting 1–2 h) each subject. The questionnaire, carried out according Geriatric Multidimensional Assessment, made up 100 items including comprehensive and psychosocial assessment aimed at various topics general well-being some scales used practice. applied several three-layered feed-forward networks by mixing different ways most important items. Results: predicting powered net one constructed 23 variables regarding comorbidity, cardiovascular risk factors, cognitive status, mood, functional status social interactions, therefore strictly related centenarians. Conclusion: Survival longevity complex biological phenomenon, ideal field network as statistic method. shows us that maintenance relationships even presence disability major importance oldest old.

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