Population Viability Analysis of the Blue-Throated Macaw (Ara glaucogu- laris) Using Individual-Based and Cohort-Based PVA Programs

摘要: We developed a demographic model to perform population viability analysis (PVA) of the Blue-throated Ma- caw (Ara glaucogularis), critically endangered species endemic Bolivia. PVA simulations were run using individual- based (VORTEX 9.72) and cohort-based (RAMAS GIS 4.0) programs. A baseline simulation allowed for assessment status on estimates extinction risk declines under current conditions abun- dance habitat availability. The role multiple demographic, environmental, anthropogenic parameters was evaluated assess changes affecting risk. showed that Macaw has relatively low probability during next fifty years. However, continuing threats, including in abundance, small size, growth rates, make this highly vulnerable any change. Elasticity sensitivity different demonstrated increases adult mortality had greatest effect rate Furthermore, impacts loss (2%) harvesting (3%) drastic effects decline. Results from study emphasize need conservation actions aimed at protecting breeding individuals (i.e., decreasing mortality), preventing poaching ac- tivities, promoting available nesting sites.