Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

摘要: Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain bacterium was, for first time, detected in European territory (Italy), causing Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion invaded territory. An model developed to compute impact discounted foregone profits losses investment. The projects Italy, Greece, Spain, as these countries account around 95% olive oil production. Climatic suitability indicates that, depending threshold, 95.5 98.9%, 99.2 99.8%, 84.6 99.1% national areas production fall into suitable respectively. For across considered rates range potential over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion 5.2 Euros worst-case scenario, which ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties feasible, 0.6 1.6 Euros. Depending whether between 0.5 1.3 can be saved course if reduced 5.18 1.1 km per year. analysis stresses necessity strengthen ongoing research cultivar resistance traits application phytosanitary measures, including vector control inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.