Effects of expertise on football betting

摘要: Background: Football (soccer) is one of the most popular sports in world, including Europe. It associated with important betting activities. A common belief, widely spread among those who participate gambling activities, that knowledge and expertise on football lead to better prediction skills for match outcomes. If unfounded, however, this belief should be considered as a form “illusion control.” The aim study was examine whether experts are than nonexperts at predicting scores. Methods: Two hundred fifty-eight persons took part study: 21.3% experts, 54.3% laypersons (non-initiated football), 24.4% amateurs. They predicted scores first 10 matches 2008 UEFA European Championship. Logistic regressions were carried out assess link between accuracy forecasted participants (expert, amateur, layperson), controlling age gender. Results: variables assessed did not predict scoring prognosis (R 2 ranged from 1% 6%). Conclusions: Expertise, age, gender appear have an impact prognoses. Therefore, improves no more cognitive distortion called Gamblers may benefit psychological interventions target illusion control related their believed links expertise. Public health policies need consider phenomenon order prevent problem betting.