Topoclimate versus macroclimate: How does climate mapping methodology affect species distribution models and climate change projections?

摘要: Aim We analyse how and why ‘topoclimate’ mapping methodologies improve on macroclimatic variables in modelling the distribution of biodiversity. Further, we consider implications for climate change projections. Location Greater Hunter Valley region (c. 60,000 km2), New South Wales, Australia. Methods We fitted generalised linear models to 295 species grasses ferns at fine resolutions (< 50 m2) using (a) variables, interpolated from weather station data altitude location only, (b) topoclimatic field measurements additional climate-forcing factors such as topography canopy cover, (c) both variables. We conducted community-level analyses examined reasons differences through single-species analyses. projected distributions under 0–3° warming, comparing biodiversity loss predicted by topoclimate macroclimate variables. Results At community level, explained significant variation (p < 0.002) not resulting increases 0.036–0.061 pseudo R-squared. Topoclimate performed better (as determined AIC) than grass living cold extremes most fern species. Models temperature different locations loss/retention general substantially fewer becoming critically endangered study – one scenario, 10% where 28%. Main Conclusions How are constructed has a effect any subsequent predictions. Misleading conclusions may result based fine-resolution if air drainage, habitat have been addressed methodology.