The Fragile World Hypothesis: Complexity, Fragility, and Systemic Existential Risk

摘要: Abstract The possibility of social and technological collapse has been the focus science fiction tropes for decades, but more recent on specific sources existential global catastrophic risk. Because these scenarios are simple to understand envision, they receive attention than risks due complex interplay failures, or that cannot be clearly specified. In this paper, we discuss complexity a certain type leads fragility which can function as source even paper first reviews hypothesis by Bostrom about inevitable risks, named vulnerable world hypothesis. This next hypothesizes may not only possible risk, could inevitable, would therefore subclass example Bostrom's worlds. After introducing titular fragile hypothesis, details conditions under it correct, presents arguments why in fact apply. Finally, assumptions potential mitigations new contrasted with those suggests.