Novel catch projection model for a commercial groundfish catch shares fishery

摘要: Abstract Fishery catch projection models play a central role in fishery management, yet are underrepresented the literature. A wide range of statistical approaches employed for task, including multiple regression models, autoregressive methods, different classes generalized linear mixed model and many others. However, applicability these can be limited specific cases complex fisheries. We developed new quota-based fisheries on West Coast U.S. to forecast annual landings variety groundfish species Northeast Pacific Ocean. The projects total landed each by individual vessel entire fishing fleet, using combination weighted mean attainment rates historical rates, generates uncertainty intervals. It demonstrated an ability produce highly accurate predictions at both fleet (R 2  = 0.9847) levels  = 0.8447). framework contains much built-in versatility, is generalizable enough serve quota based applications, approach tailored other around world. With proliferation management commercial fisheries, tools such as this one increasingly useful sustainable resources.