Threat to the point: improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action

摘要: Comparative extinction risk analysis is a common approach for assessing the relative plight of biodiversity and making conservation recommendations. However, usefulness such analyses practice has been questioned. One reason underperformance may be that threats arising from global environmental changes (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species, climate change) are often overlooked, despite being widely regarded as proximal drivers species’ endangerment. We explore this problem by (i) reviewing use in field (ii) quantitatively investigating effects threat exclusion on interpretation potential application model results. show variables routinely (59%) identified significant predictors risk, yet while most studies (78%) include extrinsic factors some kind geographic or bioclimatic information), majority (63%) do not threats. Despite low overall usage, increasingly employing to explain patterns risk. continue employ methods developed heritable traits body size, fecundity), which poorly suited treatment nonheritable including In our mammal continental amphibian case studies, omitting reduced predictive performance, but more importantly mechanistic information relevant management; resulted considerable disagreement species classifications (12% 5% amphibians mammals, respectively, translating dozens hundreds species); (iii) caused even greater (20–60%) downstream (species ranking). conclude comparative important increasing currently early stages development. Priorities future improving uptake, availability, quality quantification data, developing analytical yield robust, tangible products applications.