A three-pipe problem: dealing with complexity to halt amphibian declines

摘要: Abstract Natural resource managers are increasingly faced with threats to managed ecosystems that largely outside of their control. Examples include land development, climate change, invasive species, and emerging infectious diseases. All these characterized by large uncertainties in timing, magnitude, effects on species. In many cases, the conservation species will only be possible through concerted action limited elements system can However, before an is taken, a manager must decide how act, which is, if done well, not easy. addition dealing uncertainty, balance multiple potentially competing objectives, often cases when management actions available them limited. Guidance making types challenging decisions found practice known as decision analysis. We demonstrate using decision-analytic approach frame help identify address impediments improved making. application analysis two high-elevation amphibian An inadequate focus decision-making process, assumption scientific information adequate solve problems, overcome advance amphibians other highly threatened taxa.