Ecological–economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

摘要: Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted increase under change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent literature guide adaptation for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological analysis problem one world's most species-rich threatened ecosystems: South African fynbos. We discover counterintuitive optimal strategy that switches twice between options as available budget increases. demonstrate nonlinearly dependent resources, making choice how much invest important determining where what actions take. Our study emphasizes importance sound analytical framework prioritizing investments(4). Integrating an decision will help support complex choices severe uncertainty. prioritization method can be applied at any scale minimize species loss evaluate robustness decisions uncertainty about key assumptions.