LAND-COVER CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF THE APENNINE BROWN BEAR: A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE PAST

摘要: The Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) is an endangered subspecies endemic to Italy, where a small population, estimated at 40–50 bears, inhabits human-dominated landscape. Although little known of the ecology this habitat loss and fragmentation often has been considered one main threats for populations. To assess availability landscape scale, we used distribution model compare historical, present, future land-cover suitability population in central Italy. 4 models are based on 3 existing maps (1960, 1990, 2000) 1 simulated map 2020, obtained from cellular-automata Markov-chain land-transition model. We also compared changes human density as surrogate pressures habitat, measured contribution protected areas bear’s conservation. Our results show that, level assuming that current trends continue future, does not seem be issue or priority. negative trend despite opposite suitability, suggests conservation efforts should focus more direct actions aimed reducing human-caused mortality enhancing expansion into suitable unoccupied areas.