Iron and steel in Chinese residential buildings: A dynamic analysis

摘要: The rise of China to become world largest iron and steel producer consumer since the late 1990s can be largely attributed urbanization, with about 20% China's output used by residential buildings, 50% for construction sector as a whole. Previously, dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model was developed analyze dynamics rural urban housing systems in China. This is expanded here specifically demand scrap availability from sector. evolution stock related simulated 1900 through 2100. For almost all scenarios, simulation results indicate strong drop new over next decades, due expected lengthening – presently extremely short life span buildings. From an environmental well resource conservation point view, this reassuring conclusion. Calculations farther future that will not just decrease but rather oscillate: longer spans stronger oscillation. downside development would overcapacities production. A scenario slightly lower emphasis on secondary production might reduce oscillation at moderate costs.