Adaptive management and environmental decision making: a case study application to water use planning

摘要: Abstract Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive approaches over time. However, record successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects lack an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on insights analysis, use as technique improve decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, introduced case-study example. The discussion emphasizes decisions adopt adaptive strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across variety economic, environmental, social objectives. As result, initiatives need be carefully evaluated their merits relative other alternatives. Within alternative experimental designs should because design preferred experiment involves choices among different levels investment, quality available desired future information, ecological, risks.