Toward an Improved Methodology to Construct and Reconcile Decision Analytic Preference Judgments

摘要: Psychologists and behavioral economists have documented a variety of judgmental flaws that people make when they face novel decision situations. Similar arise analysts work with makers to assess their preferences trade-offs, because the methods analyst uses are often unfamiliar makers. In this paper we describe process designed mitigate occurrence such biases; it brings together three steps. training, maker is first given values apply in judgment tasks unrelated at hand, providing an introduction thinking deliberately quantitatively about preferences. practice, learned then applied familiar decision, goal developing next incremental level expertise using methods. Finally, application, more deliberative style used address problem interest. environmental resource setting two oyster habitat managers, test procedure by attempting prominence effect has been reported research literature. The resulting preference weights appear be free effect, initial steps toward operationalizing “building code” for introduced Payne et al. [Payne JW, Bettman JR, Schkade DA 1999 Measuring constructed preferences: Towards building code. J. Risk Uncertainty 191--3:243--270].