Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050

摘要: Deep decarbonisation of the electricity sector is central to achieving United Kingdom’s (UK) climate policy targets for 2050 and meeting its international commitments under Paris Agreement. While overall strategy decarbonising energy system has been well established in previous studies, there remain deep uncertainties around total investment cost requirements power system. The future critical importance because low carbon may create significant opportunities emissions reduction buildings transport. A key application quantitative analysis using models explore how much needs be mobilised transition. However, past estimates transition costs UK have focused only on 2030 rather than consider a relatively narrow range uncertainties. This paper addresses this important research gap. government's main whole economy model linked that employs an advanced approach uncertainty analysis, combining Monte Carlo simulation with Modelling-to-Generate Alternatives (MGA), producing 800 different scenario pathways. These pathways simultaneously policy, technology costs. results show No Climate Policy, installed generation capacities are found 60–75 GW, while 80% Reduction GHG Emissions, between 100 GW 130 plant required. Meeting also increase new generation. interquartile cumulative investments Policy ranges from £60bn £75bn, approximately double £110bn - £140bn. exercise demonstrates evaluation, yielding insights practice both internationally.