Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

摘要: Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach quantify potential changes in risk due Long Island, New York. We demonstrate method for combining exposure community vulnerability spatially characterize both present conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that will likely areas potentially create where it was before. find even modest probable (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases numbers people (47% increase) property loss (73% impacted surge. In addition, resulting maps provide clear useful example visual representation spatial distribution components can be helpful developing targeted climate change adaptation strategies. suggest agencies tasked with managing must effects if they are ensure safe sustainable communities future.