Heat-related mortality: Effect modification and adaptation in Japan from 1972 to 2010

摘要: Abstract Excessive heat is a health risk, yet previous studies have observed general decline in sensitivity to despite increasing temperatures. Conclusive evidence lacking on whether long-term changes of this can be attributed specific adaptation measures, such as air conditioning, or should linked societal adaptation, improved healthcare systems socioeconomic well-being. The aim study was assess the variation association between and daily mortality during summer Japan since 1970s examine influence conditioning (AC) prevalence, resources, developments at prefecture level variation. We analyzed total, cardiovascular respiratory disease temperature data from 1972 2010 for 47 prefectures. used Poisson generalized linear model estimate effect mortality, random effects obtain mean national estimates, meta-regression explore impact prefecture-level characteristics. Average has increased across 39-year period. Excess attributable decreased, with reduction 20 (95%CI: 17, 22), 21 18, 25), 46 36, 55) cases cardiovascular, deaths (per 1000 deaths). increase AC prevalence not associated excess over time. Prefectures populations economic status documented larger mortality. Healthcare resources were fewer heat-related 1970s, but associations did persist more recent period (i.e., 2006–2010). due reduced Japan, suggesting population adaptation. Yet, remains significant risk. Socioeconomic may play role These findings implications ensuring effective prevention impacts.