Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

摘要: Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing recovery plan requires U.S. Fish Wildlife Service to establish specific measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, are listed because they face (or perceived face) elevated risk of extinction due issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify that reduce an acceptable level. It logically follows criteria, defined conditions removing from ESA protections, need be closely related risk. Extinction probability is population parameter estimated with model uses current demographic information project into future over number replicates, calculating proportion replicated populations go extinct. We simulated probabilities piping plovers in Great Plains relationship between various parameters. tested fit regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, growth rate risk, then, using estimates, determined required some pre-defined threshold. Binomial mean natural log abundance were best predictors 50 years future. For example, based on our models, approximately 2400 females expected 1.0 will limit less than 0.048. Our method provides straightforward way linked directly core issue Published by Elsevier Ltd.