Expert judgments of pandemic influenza risks

摘要: Structured surveys were conducted with 19 medical experts, and 17 non-medical experts in related fields, attending a meeting about pandemic influenza. Respondents gave quantitative judgments for key variables potentially affecting the extent of possible H5N1 pandemic. The saw 15% (median) chance efficient human-to-human transmission, next 3 years. Should it occur, they almost no there being adequate vaccines or antiviral responses. They varying chances six other mitigation strategies reducing threat, expressing greatest faith improved surveillance. Compared to much higher both transmission effective vaccine responses available. had similar, dire predictions casualties, should occur Their open-ended questions revealed some theories underlying these beliefs.