Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

摘要: Current observed as well projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle separate impacts these two for sets vascular plant, bird, butterfly dragonfly species listed characteristic European dry grasslands wetlands, habitats high threatened biodiversity. combined articulations four frequently used SRES scenarios associated projections 2030, assessed their impact on population trends (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment effects a range environmental pressures including change. updated lists included this tool our habitat types. spatial scales: EU27 covering Europe, more restricted biogeographic region ‘Continental Europe’. Other modelled than generally did not explain significant part variance richness Changes bird were least pronounced. Land was driver plants both scales, leading decline 50–100% included, whereas wetland dragonflies birds (40–50 %). Patterns similar continental Europe wetlands but differed grasslands, where substantially lower proportion butterflies declined 50 % increased, linked increase semi-natural vegetation. In line literature using envelope models, we found little divergence among scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending group. These are, reduce its enhance connectivity, mitigate effects.