Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease II: Regaining FMD-free status

摘要: An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can have devastating effects on animal welfare, economic revenues, the export position and society as a whole. The preferred control strategy in Netherlands has recently changed to vaccination-to-live, but - not been applied before this poses unprecedented challenges for effectively controlling an epidemic, regaining FMD-free status minimizing losses. These three topics are addressed interdisciplinary model analysis. In second part we evaluate whether vaccination-to-live higher risk than non-vaccination strategies final screening be improved reduce risk. FMD transmission that was developed first part, predicted prevalence infected animals undetected herds 1000 hypothetical epidemics per strategy. results serve input part. It calculates expected number after screening, well tested. Our show vaccination yield larger whole country preemptive culling (median values 5-95% interval): 8 (0-42) 1 km culling, 50 (7-148) 2 35 (6-99) 5 vaccination. But reduced these comparably low numbers: 1.0 (0-9.1) 3.5 (0.3-15) 2.1 (0.3-9.4) Undetected were mainly found non-vaccinated sheep vaccinated cattle herds. As consequence, testing more pig will by much, while required resources drastically increase. However, only sample instead all increase half. conclusion, comparable numbers costs pigs.