Viability of the southern elephant seal population of the Falkland Islands

摘要: Accurate long-term series of demographic data are available for most populations southern elephant seals. However, research on the seals Falkland Islands began only recently, and information an accurate forecasting future this population is lacking. In paper we present current status its trend in size during last 11 years. We built age-structured model analyzed effect variation parameters growth. Elasticity analysis demonstrated that mortality has a more pronounced instantaneous growth rate than equivalent fecundity. examined effects environmental variability, inbreeding catastrophes viability by computer simulation using VORTEX PVA programme. stochastic model, important factor affecting extinction risk was variability rates, particular adult classes. concluded that, although does not appear to be at immediate extinction, small isolation make it necessary accurately monitor trends acquire additional life history feeding strategies.