Habitat suitability model for Polish wolves based on long‐term national census

摘要: The central-European population of wolves Canis lupus has its western border contiguous range in eastern Poland. Protected since 1998, Polish began to expand towards the west. Based on large-scale data wolf abundance (2000–2006) and geographic information system (GIS) tools, we built a habitat suitability model (HSM) for species best model, selected by Akaike criterion, resource selection function (RSF) included percentage cover forests, meadows marshes (positively correlated abundance) road density (negatively correlated), explained 53% total variation index 10 � km cell grid. That RSF was then used evaluate whole country terms wolves. Potential appeared consist 24 patches good (predicted relative probability occurrence Z30%), including six already occupied 17 new ones. In total, suitable covers at least 20–24% Poland, compared with 16% country’s area now species. HSM validated historical 1950–2006. areas our those inhabited one decade overlapped 81–86%. Furthermore, predicted positively number decades were actually recorded area. empirical relationship between patch size numbers, estimated that Poland could support 1450–1540 wolves, two three times larger than current estimate. needs be supplemented GIS-based connectivity analysis among patches, which turn should molecular genetics studies dispersing Because broadly similar conditions, may applicable Germany, Belarus Republic Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia).