Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation: basic problems or misinterpretations?

摘要: Rochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE) as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of criticisms at its implementation. Some their points are sound, such the need for care representing uncertainties thorough documentation process. However, others evidence misunderstandings. Although difficulties estimating tail probabilities risks, discussed by well known, arguments that Efron’s nonparametric bootstrap re-sampling method underestimates low values flawed. In any case, though, focus MSEs is primarily on comparing performance robustness across alternative procedures (MPs), rather than absolute levels risk. Qualitative methods can augment MSE, but limitations also to be recognized. Intelligence certainly needs play role not tinkering provision annual advice, which Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs risk advice following noise signal. Instead, intelligence should come into exercise oversight through process multiannual reviews MSE associated MPs. A examples given interaction with stakeholders characterize MSE.