Prioritization of flood vulnerability, coping capacity and exposure indicators through the Delphi technique: A case study in Taquari-Antas basin, Brazil

作者: Mariana Madruga de Brito , Mariele Evers , Britta Höllermann

DOI: 10.1016/J.IJDRR.2017.05.027

关键词:

摘要: Abstract This paper presents the outcomes of a participatory study that aimed to reach agreement among experts about flood vulnerability, coping capacity and exposure indicators through Delphi survey. The objective was collaboratively develop an index for Taquari-Antas basin, Brazil, using available data. A total 117 scientists, policy makers, practitioners were invited prioritize 26 indicators, focusing on pre-disaster phase. survey followed by final selection in focus group. sensitivity ratings analyzed bootstrapping original sample. response rate 86.32% 79.20% first second round, respectively. Overall, highest rated items related aspects vulnerability human infrastructure exposure. answers' deviation reduced between rounds, thereby enabling achievement consensus 21 indicators. results revealed similarities how are perceived across different professions sectors investigated. process allowed collaboration professionals with opposing views common set systematic transparent way. Hence, this is timely describing feasible alternative stakeholders build flood-related indexes. From practical standpoint, research provides decision makers core list better understand impacts floods basin. We expect incorporating input from end users creation will enable it reflect local context gain legitimacy.

参考文章(69)
Omar Dario Cardona, Maarten K Van Aalst, Jörn Birkmann, Maureen Fordham, Glenn Mc Gregor, Perez Rosa, Roger S Pulwarty, E Lisa F Schipper, Bach Tan Sinh, Henri Décamps, Mark Keim, Ian Davis, Kristie L Ebi, Allan Lavell, Reinhard Mechler, Virginia Murray, Mark Pelling, Jürgen Pohl, Anthony Oliver Smith, Frank Thomalla, None, Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. pp. 65- 108 ,(2012) , 10.1017/CBO9781139177245.005
A. Godfrey, R.L. Ciurean, C.J. van Westen, N.C. Kingma, T. Glade, Assessing vulnerability of buildings to hydro-meteorological hazards using an expert based approach : an application in Nehoiu Valley, Romania International journal of disaster risk reduction. ,vol. 13, pp. 229- 241 ,(2015) , 10.1016/J.IJDRR.2015.06.001
Roxana L., Dagmar Schroter, Thomas Glade, Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction IntechOpen. ,(2013) , 10.5772/55538
Federica Ravera, Klaus Hubacek, Mark Reed, David Tarrasón, Learning from Experiences in Adaptive Action Research: a Critical Comparison of two Case Studies Applying Participatory Scenario Development and Modelling Approaches Environmental Policy and Governance. ,vol. 21, pp. 433- 453 ,(2011) , 10.1002/EET.585
Andre L. Delbecq, Andrew H. Van de Ven, David H. Gustafson, Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes ,(1986)
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Ilan Kelman, An Analysis of the Causes and Circumstances of Flood Disaster Deaths Disasters. ,vol. 29, pp. 75- 97 ,(2005) , 10.1111/J.0361-3666.2005.00275.X
Leslie A Hayduk, Hannah Pazderka-Robinson, Greta G Cummings, Merry-Jo D Levers, Melanie A Beres, Structural equation model testing and the quality of natural killer cell activity measurements BMC Medical Research Methodology. ,vol. 5, pp. 1- 9 ,(2005) , 10.1186/1471-2288-5-1