Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change

摘要: We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely achieve objectives, over range of uncertainties. The intent is an that more practical in terms data analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature experience with probability elicitation judgmental forecasting. context involves decisions about managing forest lands have been severely affected mountain pine beetles British Columbia, pest infestation climate-exacerbated. A management decision was developed basis for context, alternatives land actions, frame condition judgments. wide climate forecasts, taken represent 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions future climate, were An instrument developed, tested, revised serve eliciting probabilistic three-point regarding performance selected set relevant short long term. elicitations conducted workshop comprising 14 regional specialists. employed concept stochastic dominance help identify alternatives. used extensive sensitivity explore patterns judgments, also considered preferred each individual expert. results show two flexible policies judged perform better average dominance. suggest approaches making deserve greater attention testing.