Modeling the potential distribution for a range-expanding species: Wolf recolonization of the Alpine range

摘要: The wolf is naturally recolonizing the Alpine range. Potentially, eight different countries are affected, clearly calling for transboundary management planning. In this framework, using partitioned Mahalanobis distance, and considering environmental, anthropogenic, biotic variables, we produced a model of potential distribution over range, accounting ecological characteristics species lack equilibrium in current distribution. Low human population density, increasing distance from infrastructures, intermediate elevations high prey-species richness were most important factors predicting presence, followed by presence natural land-covers. Based on projections our model, predicted large availability suitability areas across entire alpine which promises great range expansion near future. Moreover, protected cover 47% areas, many may act future as source habitat patches region. Our provides useful planning tool to develop, evaluate implement conservation interventions at broad, biologically meaningful scale By depicting Alps, will aid regional local managers design proactive approaches conservation, especially that have not yet been colonized species. 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.