Never say “not”: Impact of negative wording in probability phrases on imprecise probability judgments

摘要: Effective translations between numerical and verbal representations of uncertainty are a concern shared by researchers in cognitive science psychology, with applications to real-world risk management decision support systems. While there is substantial literature on such for point-wise probabilities, this paper contributes the scanty imprecise probability translations. Reanalysis Budescu et al.'s [1] data interpretations Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change [2] fourth report's expressions (PEs) revealed that negative wording has deleterious effects lay judgements. al. asked participants interpret PEs IPCC report sentences, asking them provide lower, ''best'' upper estimates probabilities they thought authors intended. There were four experimental conditions, determining whether given any guidelines translating into numbers. The first analysis focuses twelve sentences used PE ''very likely,'' ''likely,'' ''unlikely,'' or unlikely''. A mixed beta regression modelling less regressive mean dispersion positive than all three estimates, both likely'' ''likely'' sentence sets. also included task context-free these PEs, similar pattern results was found task. Negative therefore resulted more consensus regardless condition. second two statements positive-negative duals. Appropriate pairs responses assessed conjugacy additivity. large majority respondents appropriately super- sub-additive their lower estimates. model variables suprisingly close obeying relationships probabilities.