Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building

摘要: Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that transitions should be understood as socio-technical and scenario construction reflect this fact. This paper presents an application of building method for improving long-term strategies Germany. Developing integrated on national level starts with employing cross impact balancing (CIB) approach identifying consistent societal scenarios. As first step, relevant context factors selected defined (39 descriptors alternative future developments). Interviews experts develop qualitative network CIB. The resulting then transferred quantitative by using two different models account demand supply structures A final evaluation focuses primary demand, renewable shares, direct energy-related CO2 emissions. integrates statements model results interdisciplinary knowledge integration. turn provides insight into method’s capacity improve consistency identify potential risks related process.