High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems

摘要: To meet the terms of 2015 Paris Agreement, global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by end this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable scenario (ADV). ADV reflects trends in systems will decarbonize entire 2050. Those results are compared with IPCC AR5 450 ppm scenarios, 2050 demand projections — primary final energy — and demands for transport building sectors because they important urban environments. The further discussed regard to impact on infrastructures role megacities consumption pattern. Under assumption that urbanization rates remain at level until 2050, annual buildings areas is expected increase 27 EJ under (REF), from 57 EJ 84 EJ per year, whereas would lead overall reduction 46 EJ year while population GDP continue grow. Overall, sector over 60% REF, deep mitigation pathway (ADV) reduces below base 70 EJ year. This significant reduction, even other can achieved drastic shift electric mobility response vehicle efficiency standards, phasing-out combustion engines 2030, modal favor public transport. shows smaller deviation comparison than sector.